Dynamic Integrated Flood Insurance (DIFI) model

Figure 19: Development of unaffordability of insurance between 2010-2050 and 2010-2080.

Tool description

The model uses climatic and socioeconomic input data from the flood model GLOFRIS. Results show the development of the insurability of flood damage across Europe and what action could be taken to enhance the sustainability of flood insurance markets to climate change. The target group of this tool consists of policy makers, insurance companies and real estate investors.

Complexity

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Complexity explanation

The output of the model consists of calculated flood insurance premiums, projections of the unaffordability of flood insurance premiums. An individual within the model chooses whether they want to insurance and to what extent individual risk reduction measures are incentivized. The individual attempts to maximize their utility within the model, given financial constraints and expected insurance outcomes. This way, the uptake of insurance per region can also be calculated. Finally, the degree of incentivized flood risk reduction on the household level can be calculated. This may help stimulating individual behaviour for flood damage reduction. The format of the outputs is in maps per NUTS2 region that show the insurance uptake within these regions.

Benefits of using the tool

The tool offers insight in the insurability of flood risk in Europe. Moreover, the model can be extended to assess the reasons for a potential flood insurance gap: the level of uninsured flood risk. For example, more certainty of government aid after a flood event will reduce flood insurance demand. Outcomes may help policy makers in the stimulation of flood insurance uptake or the implementation of individual flood damage mitigation measures.

City Hub experiences

The Amsterdam city hub (APG) may benefit from the use of the DIFI tool to distinguish different possibilities for flood insurance based on their real estate investment portfolio and this may guide their investment decisions

Triple-A phase

The tool can be used in the following Triple-A phases:

  • Analysis phase (risk & vulnerability, impact assessments):

– Identification of socio-economic tipping points for insurance uptake under climate change.

– Insight in the role of the government in crowding out insurance uptake.

– Evaluation of insurance market reforms that can improve the capacity of insurance to deal with climate change.

  • Action phase: Outcomes may help policy makers:

– for stimulation of flood insurance uptake.

– to implement flood damage mitigation measures.

Guidance

Not available yet

Contact

VU-IVM

Thijs Endendijk, t.endendijk@vu.nl

 

More information at

Tesselaar, M., Botzen, W. W., Haer, T., Hudson, P., Tiggeloven, T., & Aerts, J. C. (2020). Regional inequalities in flood insurance affordability and uptake under climate change. Sustainability, 12(20), 8734.

Complementarity

Complementary to the GLOFRIS tool from VU-IVM.

The climate story of Gdynia​

Short summary: A story about Jan and Maria during extreme precipitation.

Theme: Flooding

End user: Citizens

Link to the story: under construction